Reasons for the Recent Surge in Copper Prices (November 2025)

Based on the latest market data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) and global analytical sources such as Reuters, Investing News Network, and reports from Vietnam (VietnamBiz), copper prices rose by approximately 0.6-0.7% during the trading sessions of November 7-10, 2025, reaching a level of around $10,739–$11,114 USD/tonne (equivalent to approximately $4.87–$5.05 USD/pound), after hitting an all-time record high of $11,114 USD/tonne at the end of October 2025. This sharp upward momentum (about +12% from Q2/2025) is primarily due to a combination of improving geopolitics, supply disruptions, and booming demand from green technology.

Key Drivers Behind the Recent Copper Price Increase:

1. Improving US-China Trade Tensions

Signs of easing tensions between Washington and Beijing (moving closer to a comprehensive agreement) have boosted risk sentiment, supporting a 0.6% rise in copper prices in just one session. Although China (the world’s largest consumer) has reduced imports, expectations of investment cooperation and trade stability have compensated, pushing prices to record highs.

• Impact: Reduced concerns over tariffs, encouraging capital flow into basic commodities.

2. Supply Disruptions from Major Mines

The prolonged effect of the Cobre Panama mine closure (Panama) since late 2023, coupled with seismic incidents at the Kamoa-Kakula mine (Ivanhoe Mines, Congo) and a landslide at the Grasberg mine (Freeport-McMoRan, Indonesia), have reduced global production, creating an estimated supply deficit of 150,000–400,000 tonnes in 2025–2026.

• Consequence: Shortages in bauxite and reduced refined copper production have driven costs higher. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a surplus of only 178,000 tonnes in 2025, lower than previously expected.

3. Surging Demand from Renewable Energy and AI

Copper is the essential “green metal” for electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), and AI data centers. Global demand is projected to increase by 3.3–6% in 2025, especially from China (+6% usage), the US (expanding data centers), and Europe (energy transition).

• Impact: The boom in EV and AI production is straining supply, with a predicted deficit of 4.5 million tonnes after 2025 (BloombergNEF).

4. Pressure from Tariffs and Speculation

Even as trade tensions ease, US tariffs imposed by Trump (25–50% on imports from China, Canada, Mexico) since early 2025 led American buyers to “front-load” (purchase 400,000 tonnes in advance to avoid duties), driving up US domestic prices and creating a ripple effect globally.

5. Speculation

Long-term buying positions from investment funds have surged in Q2-Q3/2025, reinforcing the upward trend.

Source: VQB Vietnam.