The Reason for Today’s Sharp Aluminum Price Hike (November 10, 2025)

Based on the latest market data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) and global analysis sources, aluminum prices rose by approximately 0.7-1.2% this morning, reaching levels around $2,856-$2,860 USD/ton. This sharp increase primarily stems from ongoing supply-demand and geopolitical factors, particularly concerns over a shortage of alumina (the main raw material for aluminum production).

Key Factors Driving the Price Surge:

1. Global Alumina and Bauxite Supply Shortages

Alumina prices hit a new record high last week, reaching approximately $633-$805 USD/ton (a 29% increase from the previous month), due to disruptions in bauxite exports from major producing countries like Guinea and Brazil. Specifically, an explosion at the Conakry port (Guinea) and an export ban by a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminum interrupted the supply chain, leading to production cuts at major aluminum smelters in China and Australia.

• Consequence: Aluminum producers (like Alcoa) were forced to reduce capacity, creating an estimated global deficit of 400,000 tons in 2025. This pushes aluminum prices higher to offset surging production costs.

2. China’s Export Restriction Policies

China – the world’s largest aluminum producer (accounting for 60% of global output) – reached its government-mandated production limit earlier in 2025, leading to export reductions. Notably, the complete cessation of the 13% export tax rebate starting December 1, 2024 (with lingering effects into 2025) caused Chinese aluminum exports to surge by 37% in November 2024 as companies “cleared inventory” before the deadline, but global supply has tightened significantly since then.

• Estimate: This could remove 5 million tons of aluminum from the international market, creating short-term upward price pressure.

3. US Tariffs and Trade Tensions

The Trump administration imposed 25-50% import tariffs on aluminum from countries such as Canada, Russia, and China starting in early 2025, aiming to protect domestic production. This caused US aluminum prices to surge to $3,046-$4,628 USD/ton (a 10.45% increase year-over-year), spilling over into the global market via the LME.

• The EU also proposed banning Russian aluminum imports starting January 2025 due to the Ukraine conflict, further restricting supply from Russia (the world’s second-largest producer).

4. Increased Demand from Green Industries and Economic Stimulus

Aluminum demand is soaring from the renewable energy sector (solar panels, electric vehicles), construction, and automotive industries, with global growth forecasted at 1-4% in 2025. Economic stimulus packages from China (interest rate cuts, infrastructure investment) and the US are boosting consumption, particularly in Asia and North America.

• A weaker US Dollar (due to expectations of a Fed interest rate cut) is also supportive of commodity prices like aluminum.

Source: VQB Vietnam.