Green Steel – The Key for Vietnam’s Steel Industry to Overcome Global Carbon Barriers.

Vietnam’s steel industry development strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2050, places the sector on an entirely new trajectory. The focus is no longer simply on increasing output, but on upgrading quality, mastering technology, and especially transitioning toward green steel. This direction, approved under Decision No. 261/QĐ-TTg signed by Deputy Prime Minister Bùi Thanh Sơn, clearly reflects an approach to developing heavy industry in line with increasingly strict global environmental standards.

The core emphasis of the strategy is not “producing more conventional steel,” but restructuring the industry toward higher value. Steel is positioned as a foundation for manufacturing, energy infrastructure, transportation, and defense, which means products must meet both national and international standards, contain high technological content, and deliver greater added value. This shift requires innovation in metallurgical technology, energy optimization, and emissions reduction—factors that are rapidly becoming a “passport” for steel products in the global marketplace.

In terms of development targets, by 2030 crude steel output is expected to grow at an average rate of about 7–8% per year, reaching 25–26 million tons annually. Finished steel production is projected to reach 32–33 million tons, with per capita steel consumption of 270–280 kg per year. More importantly, the industry aims to meet 80–85% of domestic demand, gradually replacing imports, particularly alloy steels, tool steels, and special steels for mechanical manufacturing.

Beyond 2035 and toward 2050, the scale of the industry will continue expanding, but growth rates will gradually slow to align with sustainable development trends. By mid-century, crude steel output could reach 65–70 million tons per year, and finished steel 75–80 million tons. Per capita consumption is expected to rise to 570–650 kg, reflecting a deeply industrialized economy. However, alongside output growth will be increasingly stringent requirements on environmental performance, carbon emissions, and resource efficiency.

A key pillar of the strategy is the strong shift toward high value-added steel products. High-quality alloy steel, stainless steel, and high-strength steel for automobiles, shipbuilding, railways, renewable energy, and offshore structures are prioritized. This transition not only enhances the steel industry’s position in global value chains but also reduces dependence on imported strategic materials.

In parallel with product restructuring, technological direction is strongly emphasized. The steel sector will focus on investing in large-scale, advanced technology projects located in areas with deep-water ports, strong logistics infrastructure, and access to renewable energy sources. Strengthening value chain linkages—from raw materials and metallurgy to rolling and final consumption—is seen as essential to optimizing costs, reducing emissions, and improving competitiveness.

A range of specialized steel products is also targeted for domestic development, including high-strength plate steel, prestressed steel, corrosion-resistant steel for marine environments, ultra-light steel for transport equipment, rail steel for high-speed railways, steel pipes for liquefied gas transport, steel for wind power structures, and steel products serving defense and security sectors. These are all closely linked to green infrastructure and the global energy transition.

The most prominent theme throughout the strategy is green steel. This is no longer a trend-driven concept but an emerging global standard.

Around the world, major markets such as the European Union, North America, and parts of Northeast Asia are gradually introducing carbon border adjustment mechanisms and requiring transparency in lifecycle emissions of steel products. This means steel competes not only on price and mechanical performance, but also on the amount of CO₂ emitted per ton produced. Technologies such as electric arc furnaces using scrap steel, hydrogen-based direct reduction, and integration of renewable energy into steelmaking are becoming mainstream pathways.

In that context, Vietnam’s orientation toward green steel production aligns with international trends, but the challenges are significant. Currently, a substantial share of steel is still produced using blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace routes, which rely heavily on coking coal and generate high emissions. To meet global green criteria, the industry must rapidly increase the share of electric arc furnace production, raise scrap collection and recycling rates, and gradually explore deep decarbonization solutions such as carbon capture or hydrogen use in the long term.

The “greenness” of future steel will be assessed through multiple criteria: carbon emission intensity per ton of steel, the share of renewable energy in electricity consumption, raw material efficiency, recyclability, and compliance with international environmental standards. If the strategic orientation is effectively implemented—especially by linking steel development with renewable energy and a circular economy—Vietnamese steel will have the opportunity to meet increasingly strict green trade barriers and avoid carbon-related tariffs in export markets.

In summary, this steel industry development strategy is not merely a plan to expand capacity. It represents a comprehensive repositioning of the sector toward high quality, technological self-reliance, and alignment with the global decarbonization process. Its success will depend on the pace of technological innovation, access to clean energy, and determination to shift toward low-emission steel production. If these goals are achieved, Vietnam’s steel industry will not only satisfy domestic demand but also stand firm in the green global industrial trade landscape that is now taking shape.