Vietnamese Iron and Steel Exports in the First 7 Months of 2025: Sharp Decline in Value, New Momentum from the Cambodian Market

According to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam exported over 6.4 million tons of iron and steel, bringing in $4.2 billion. While this is a significant figure, it represents a decrease in both volume and value compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically, the decline in export value was steeper than the drop in volume, indicating that a decrease in global steel prices was the main negative factor.

Domestic economic experts have also commented on the situation. Mr. Nguyen Van Sua, an expert from the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), stated, “The global steel market is facing many challenges, from inflation and economic recession to trade protectionist policies. This has reduced demand and pushed down steel prices, directly impacting Vietnam’s export value, even though production has remained at a fairly good level.”

The Rise of the Cambodian Market

Amidst widespread export difficulties, Cambodia has emerged as a bright spot. In the first seven months of the year, Cambodia surpassed traditional markets to become Vietnam’s largest export partner for iron and steel. Specifically:

• Volume: Over 887,000 tons, a 32% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
• Value: Over $508 million, a 19% increase.
• Average Export Price: Reached $573 per ton, a 9.5% decrease year-on-year.

This growth is driven by the Vietnam-Cambodia Bilateral Trade Promotion Agreement, which applies a 0% tariff on exported iron and steel products. This gives Vietnamese steel a competitive price advantage, meeting the increasing demand for construction and infrastructure development in Cambodia.

Challenges in Major Markets

While Cambodia became a bright spot, Vietnam’s iron and steel exports to many other major markets saw a clear decline.

• Italy: Despite ranking second with a value of over $413 million, both the volume and value of exports decreased by as much as 28%.
• United States: Dropped to third place and has continuously reduced imports. Vietnamese steel exported to the U.S. faces increasingly high trade barriers, including import tariff increases and anti-dumping duties of up to 59% applied to some major companies like Hoa Phat and Hoa Sen.

Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, an economic expert from the Academy of Finance, commented, “Trade defense measures from countries like the United States are a major barrier, making it difficult for Vietnamese businesses to compete and forcing them to seek new markets. This is a common trend for many export sectors, requiring businesses to diversify their markets to mitigate risks.”

Outlook for the End of 2025: Hopes for the Domestic Market

While exports face many difficulties, the domestic market is showing a strong recovery. Data from the Vietnam Steel Association indicates:

• Finished steel output: Reached 15.825 million tons, a 9.7% increase.
• Domestic consumption: Increased by 10.2%.

This growth is primarily due to the acceleration of public investment projects and the recovery of the construction market.

Mr. Le Thanh Hung, a steel market analyst at VNDirect Securities, forecasted, “In late 2025, domestic steel production and consumption will continue to be the main drivers. Finished steel output is expected to reach 28-30 million tons, of which domestic consumption could account for 21-25 million tons, an increase of about 8-10% compared to 2024. The price of domestic construction steel is likely to remain stable or increase slightly, thanks to actual demand.”

In summary, the Vietnamese steel market in the first seven months of 2025 presented a picture with two contrasting colors: exports facing difficulties due to global factors, while domestic consumption recovered strongly. Towards the end of the year, growth momentum will largely depend on the domestic market’s absorption capacity, especially from public investment projects.

Source: cafef and compiled from the internet.