Smart data helps traders navigate uncertain and volatile trade markets

Recyclers, traders and manufacturers in the non-ferrous sector are having to adapt to a profound transformation in volatile global markets, the BIR World Recycling Convention in Bangkok has been told. The Non-Ferrous Metals Division session on 27 October considered the impact on the sector of shifting policies, tariffs and new technologies – and how being smart with data can help navigate the changes.

The session was opened by divisional President Paul Coyte (Hayes Metals, NZL) who highlighted changing trade flows and the different mechanisms that were impacting on them.

“Non-ferrous material flows are a lot like trade winds,” he said. “It’s really hard to work out the future direction of wind flow if you don’t have accurate information. Similarly, in our businesses, without accurate information, it’s really hard to spot future trends.”

The background to the session was a welter of recent policy measures in several key regions. In Asia, they range from Malaysia’s Operation Metal to Thailand’s stricter import rules and China’s enhanced inspections. US tariffs are affecting supply chains while policy makers in Europe are proposing restrictions on secondary copper exports. Meanwhile recyclers in the Middle East and Oceania encounter changing logistics, costs and competition.

The picture of supply chains adapting to tariffs, import bans and rising domestic recovery targets was reinforced by guest speaker Jessica Fung, Head of Consulting at Project Blue (GBR), which analyses critical mineral supply chains worldwide.

She used the example of recent US tariffs to caution that announcements of trade policy, let alone the implementation, had immediate and measurable effects on both flows and prices. Imports of refined copper jumped sharply in the months before the measures were due to take effect in August, she pointed out. “All of a sudden the market takes note and says, well, we’d better get all our refined copper into America as quickly as possible before these trade tariffs kick in.”

Secondary copper imports and exports – on a gross basis – have shown a generally flat trade globally over the past decade. But Project Blue has adjusted the numbers to a “copper equivalent” basis by considering trade values, the timing of shipments and how exporters report their numbers. Ms Fung’s smarter data shows steady growth over the decade and indications that more copper per tonne is being exported or imported.

The company data also shows that secondary copper accounts for roughly 36% of global copper consumption, a share expected to rise above 40% within the next decade. Growth in secondary refining capacity is particularly strong in Asia, with Japan and South Korea both expanding its use this century.

“What started at below 10% of scrap input into their smelters and refineries has increased to almost 25% now, and we expect that to continue growing,” Ms Fung noted.

Another speaker, Inge Hofkens, Chief Operations Officer, Multimetal Recycling, Aurubis (DEU), said she had never seen so many dramatic changes in the world’s non-ferrous flows during her 30 years in the industry: politically, economically and technologically.

“If some regions keep markets open while others close their borders, and at the same time buy large volumes of metals in other jurisdictions, this puts international trade and ultimately our circular economy at risk.

“If we as industry players are fragmented and not united, others will define our future. If we stand together, we will define our future ourselves.”

Ms Hofkens said some saw primary producers and recyclers as being “contradictions” but she argued that responsible primary production and strategic recycling was a powerful duo, working hand-in-hand to build true resilience. She cited Aurubis’ new multi-metal plant in the United States as an example of partnership.

“We are supporting the US scrap community by building a local outlet, turning complex scrap into refined metals. It marks a new era of circularity.”

The third speaker was Stuart Kagan, co-founder and CEO of Buddy (NZL), who set out how non-ferrous trade flows can be augmented by digitisation and technology. His company offers a digital platform for trading metals.

Technology was transforming many industries, Mr Kagan said, but the non-ferrous trade was being left behind. The main barrier was the sector’s “life blood and oxygen” of personal relationships between traders.

“Relationships and technology are not mutually exclusive; they can work beautifully together,” he argued. “It’s helping buyers and sellers find better partners – faster and with more trust.”

Mr Kagan accepted that it was a complex, cautious industry with discrepancies, claims and late shipments but digital platforms such as Buddy dealt with such issues and offered greater opportunities. He quoted a 2024 report from the consultants McKinsey: “Metal traders that build digital core capabilities can significantly outperform peers in speed and efficiency.”

When all three speakers joined a Q&A panel chaired by Sebastien Perron of CNA Metals (USA) alongside guest panellist Albrecht Vanhoutte, Commercial Engineer at Galloo (FRA/BEL), attention turned to flows of secondary copper in the EU. Mr Perron asked Ms Fung to comment on her charts showing higher exports and lower imports over the past three years. Was it, he wondered, because more material became available or the EU market was saturated?

Ms Fung thought several dynamics were behind the trend. One was that the EU had to be considered as two parts – east and west. Demand in the east is growing while that in the west is declining. Other factors were that Europe would never have sufficient processing capacity for recovered metal and that, with lower growth domestically, demand for copper would be much stronger in Asia and elsewhere. Mr Vanhoutte said his business had seen more materials going to China, possibly because of Chinese tariffs on US exports.

From the floor, Emmanuel Katrakis of Galloo (FRA/BEL), raised the topic of possible EU restrictions on the export of secondary copper and aluminium.

Ms Fung commented: “The implementation of trade barriers can distort the market in terms of flows and the pricing of materials. From a ‘big picture perspective’, it adds a lot of costs, inefficiencies and friction.”

Ms Hofkens believed the policy emphasis on security was a recent one but “markets will always find a way themselves”.

According to: bir.org – BIR Bangkok 2025