Global Non-Ferrous Metals Market Experiences Strong Volatility: Copper Remains the Center of Attention

The global non-ferrous metals market continued to experience high volatility this week, driven by geopolitical factors, LME inventories, and shifts in global commodity flows.

Among all metals, copper remained the focal point of the market, with prices holding at elevated levels around USD 13,600 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The primary driver has been the decline in available LME inventories to their lowest level in approximately ten weeks, while substantial volumes of metal have been withdrawn from warehouses for shipment to the United States amid concerns that the country may impose import tariffs on refined copper.

According to market data:

• LME copper cancelled warrants have surged to more than 116,000 metric tons, the highest level since 2021.
• Copper in the U.S. market is currently trading at a premium of approximately USD 500 per metric ton above LME prices.
• Brent crude oil prices remaining above USD 100 per barrel continue to provide support for the broader commodities complex.

At the same time, developments surrounding the U.S.–Iran negotiations have kept investors cautious, particularly as concerns over inflation and interest rates remain present.

For aluminum, the market drew attention after Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (Chalco) announced plans to invest USD 1 billion in the construction of an alumina refinery in Guinea with a production capacity of 1.2 million metric tons per year. The move highlights China’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its control over the global bauxite and alumina supply chain in order to meet the long-term needs of the aluminum industry.

Meanwhile, the nickel market faced mixed influences after Indonesia decided to exempt Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) from its centralized export policy. This decision is expected to help maintain stability in global nickel supply.

For recycling companies and metal trading enterprises in Vietnam, current market conditions indicate that:

• Copper remains the strongest-performing metal segment, with risks of short-term spot supply shortages.
• Aluminum continues to receive support from China’s long-term raw material strategy.
• Nickel remains heavily dependent on Indonesia’s mining and export policies.

VMRF believes that, in the coming period, businesses should closely monitor:

• Changes in LME inventory levels;
• U.S. trade policies;
• Consumption demand in China; and
• Global energy costs

in order to develop appropriate procurement, trading, and risk management strategies.