China continues to dominate the global metals market, while recycling faces significant volatility.

For over a decade, China has been a central player in the global metals market, serving as a massive producer while also implementing strict controls on recycled scrap imports. This has created widespread trade disruptions that deeply affect recycling businesses worldwide.

Since 2019, many experts have predicted that China might withdraw from the scrap import market but would never be completely removed from the global “chessboard.” Current realities show that this assessment remains valid.

Steel Market: The Spreading Tariff War

China currently accounts for 50–60% of global steel, aluminum, and copper production, while only holding about 17% of the world’s population. This imbalance has forced major countries to implement trade barriers to protect their domestic industries.

According to Atilla Widnell, Managing Director of Navigate Commodities (Singapore), “Trade protection measures are reaching a breaking point. The US has imposed a 50% tariff on steel, and the EU, India, South Korea, Japan, Brazil, and even Vietnam are pursuing similar policies. This is causing steel prices in China and neighboring countries to fall sharply, while Chinese companies are trying to export quickly before the ‘doors’ close.”

In ASEAN, many steel mills using electric arc furnaces (EAFs)—which rely heavily on recycled steel—are losing market share due to the rise of Chinese-invested blast furnace steel projects.

Non-ferrous Metals: Triangular Trade and Protectionist Risks

In the non-ferrous sector, supply chains are becoming increasingly complex. Many shipments of aluminum and copper scrap from the US and Europe must pass through intermediaries in Southeast Asia, Japan, or South Korea before reaching China. This helps companies comply with regulations while also navigating tariff barriers.

Some international traders say Beijing is tightening control over imported recycled metal shipments to prevent tax evasion and low-quality goods. However, according to Dr. Michael Ferrari, a global trade expert in the US, “The underlying motive is a protectionist policy to safeguard domestic primary metal producers, especially amid ongoing US-China trade tensions.”

Kenji Sato, a raw materials market expert in Japan, adds, “If China further tightens the import of recycled metals from the US, the trade flow will shift significantly to Southeast Asia. This could open up opportunities for countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia to serve as transshipment and processing hubs, but it will also create environmental and quality management pressures.”

A Perspective for Vietnam

As one of the ASEAN countries with a fast-developing steel and aluminum industry, Vietnam is directly affected by global fluctuations. Domestic steel producers benefit from trade protection measures (anti-dumping and import tariffs) but also face intense competition from cheap Chinese goods.

In the recycling sector, Vietnam has historically imported large quantities of metal scrap (especially iron, aluminum, and copper) for production. China’s tightened controls are forcing scrap flows to shift to Vietnam, creating an opportunity for increased supply, but also posing a risk of importing low-quality scrap, which puts pressure on the environment and risk management.

Nguyen Van Sua, a Vietnamese steel industry expert, notes, “If Vietnam knows how to leverage the ‘triangular trade’ trend, we can become an important transshipment point in the global recycling supply chain. But at the same time, a strict control mechanism is needed to prevent Vietnam from becoming an industrial ‘dumping ground’.”

Additionally, international experts emphasize that the trend of using recycled metals in the production of electric vehicles, renewable energy, and electronics will create long-term opportunities for Vietnam. By investing correctly in green recycling technology, Vietnam can not only take advantage of the abundant supply from international trade but also participate more deeply in the global value chain.

Global Outlook

Amid a volatile global economy, the demand for recycled aluminum and copper is still projected to grow, driven by the electronics, EV, and renewable energy sectors. However, according to David Chiao of Uni-All Group (US), the biggest question remains: “Will being excluded from the Chinese market completely change the ‘profit equation’ for international recycling companies?”

Clearly, with its superior production scale, China is not only the world’s “factory” but also the center that dictates the rhythm of the global recycled metals market. International recyclers and traders are forced to adjust their strategies, seek new markets, and balance risks while closely monitoring every move by Beijing.

Based on RecyclingToday and various internet sources.